House Prices UK
Why not stay abreast of what's happening to UK house prices and track current trends in the UK property market?
HousePrices.uk.net helps you to find house prices, compare the latest house price indices, follow current developments
and future trends, and dig out up-to-date information from our collection of technical
and general house price resources.
HousePrices.uk.net is an independent website that helps you keep an eye on average house prices in the UK
but without the trouble of tracking down and collating lots of different house price indices.
We help you to make sense of the information by placing the various house price indices in their proper context
and stripping away much of the marketing slant that often accompanies "news" about house prices.
Interactive House Price Graphs
In the Graphs and Regional Comparison
sections you'll find interactive charts that allow you to compare the latest monthly
UK house prices and house price inflation (HPI) from the Halifax, Nationwide, FT, Land Registry,
CLG, and Rightmove indices. There's also a collection of regional house price graphs
covering down to the district and city level.
Predicting House Prices from Mortgage Approval Figures
We are developing an experimental house price predictor
based on the correlation between UK house price inflation (HPI) and
the monthly BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase figures.
This is particularly useful because, unlike many of the official house price
indices that provide only a lagged view, it can give a more timely estimate of HPI and is a
good leading indicator of the UK property market. For example, a sharp fall in the approval numbers would have to preceed a house price crash.
The graphs below compare the Halifax house price inflation, shifted back by 6 months to correct for
lag inherent in the YoY differencing, against the house prices obtained from the correlation.
See Property Market Transactions or view House Price Approvals/Transactions and HPI graphs - select from BoE approvals, transactions, or HPI.
Real-Time Indicators of House Prices
House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time
indicator of UK house prices? This
house builders index is based on the their
quoted share price looks quite promising.
It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, signalled the collapse on restricted credit in 2007, and is indicating a tentative recovery that began in early 2009.
Seasonal Adjustment
House prices vary seasonally between -2% and +1% in a way that reflects seasonal
changes in demand - it leads to a sharp dip at Christmas and the New Year with a broad peak
during June-July.
This can make it difficult to interpret the monthly changes in house prices in terms
of either trends or irregular volatility, so it is standard practice to report house prices
seasonally adjusted, or SA. The correction shown is the % change added to the NSA prices
to get the SA ones. The level of seasonal adjustment is an excellent indiactor of the annual 'breathing' cycle of the houseing market, and hence its health.
Interest Rate Outlook
A good idea of where future interest rates are heading can be found from the British Bankers Association LIBOR forward rates.
On average, these settle slightly above the subsequent level of the BoE repo rate, however the current large gap is a direct reflection of credit crunch.
These are important because house prices in the UK are strongly influenced by the costs involved in servicing
a mortgage as a proportion of income, so that changes in interest rates can lead directly to changes in house prices.
more details
House Price Market Roundup
| Source | Index Date | Released | NSA | SA | YoY |
| Rightmove | Aug 2010 | 16 Aug 2010 | £232,241 | | +4.3% |
| Nationwide | Aug 2010 | 02 Sep 2010 | £166,507 | £165,659 | +3.9% |
| Halifax | Jul 2010 | 04 Aug 2010 | £168,331 | £167,425 | +4.8%
|
| CLG MA | May 2010 | 13 Jul 2010 | £209,505 | | +11.0% |
| FT-HPI MA | Jun 2010 | 08 Jul 2010 | | £218,119 | +7.7% |
| Land Registry HPI | Jul 2010 | 28 Aug 2010 | | £166,798 | +6.7% |
| BoE Mortgage Approvals | Jul 2010 | 31 Aug 2010 | 55.7k | 48.7k ( 48.6k Jun ) | -12.0% |
| HMRC Property Transactions | Jul 1010 | 24 Aug 2010 | 90k | 91k ( 75k Jun ) | +4.7% |
| RICS Price Rise Balance | Jul 2010 | 10 Aug 2010 | | -8% ( +9% Jun ) | |
| RICS Sales to Stock | Jul 2010 | 10 Aug 2010 | | 24.6% ( 25.8% Jun ) | |
|