UK House Prices - HousePrices.uk.net

House Prices UK

house doorway with plants Why not stay abreast of what's happening to UK house prices and track current trends in the UK property market? HousePrices.uk.net helps you to find house prices, compare the latest house price indices, follow current developments and future trends, and dig out up-to-date information from our collection of technical and general house price resources.

HousePrices.uk.net is an independent website that helps you keep an eye on average house prices in the UK but without the trouble of tracking down and collating lots of different house price indices. We help you to make sense of the information by placing the various house price indices in their proper context and stripping away much of the marketing slant that often accompanies "news" about house prices.

Interactive House Price Graphs

In the Graphs and Regional Comparison sections you'll find interactive charts that allow you to compare the latest monthly UK house prices and house price inflation (HPI) from the Halifax, Nationwide, FT, Land Registry, CLG, and Rightmove indices. There's also a collection of regional house price graphs covering down to the district and city level.

Graph of house price inflation from 1995

Predicting House Prices from Mortgage Approval Figures

We are developing an experimental house price predictor new based on the correlation between UK house price inflation (HPI) and the monthly BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase figures. This is particularly useful because, unlike many of the official house price indices that provide only a lagged view, it can give a more timely estimate of HPI and is a good leading indicator of the UK property market. For example, a sharp fall in the approval numbers would have to preceed a house price crash.

The graphs below compare the Halifax house price inflation, shifted back by 6 months to correct for lag inherent in the YoY differencing, against the house prices obtained from the correlation. See Property Market Transactions or view House Price Approvals/Transactions and HPI graphs - select from BoE approvals, transactions, or HPI.

Graph of house price inflation and predictor based on monthly BoE mortgage approvals

Real-Time Indicators of House Prices

House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007.

House Builders Index - real time house price predictor?

Seasonal Adjustment

House prices vary seasonally between -2% and +1% in a way that reflects seasonal changes in demand - it leads to a sharp dip at Christmas and the New Year with a broad peak during June-July.

This can make it difficult to interpret the monthly changes in house prices in terms of either trends or irregular volatility, so it is standard practice to report house prices seasonally adjusted, or SA. The correction shown is the % change added to the NSA prices to get the SA ones.

Graph of monthly seasonal adjustment applied to the average house price

Interest Rate Outlook

A good idea of where future interest rates are heading can be found from the British Bankers Association LIBOR forward rates. On average, these settle slightly above the subsequent level of the BoE repo rate, however the current large gap is a direct reflection of credit crunch.

These are important because house prices in the UK are strongly influenced by the costs involved in servicing a mortgage as a proportion of income, so that changes in interest rates can lead directly to changes in house prices. more details

House Price Market Roundup

Source	Index Date	Released	NSA	SA	YoY
Rightmove	Jan 2010	18 Jan 2010	£222,261		+4.1%
Nationwide	Jan 2010	29 Jan 2010	£163,481	£165,654	+8.6%
Halifax	Jan 2009	04 Feb 2010	£165,514	£169,777	+3.6%
CLG MA	Oct 2009	10 Dec 2009	£198,450		-2.5%
FT-HPI MA	Dec 2009	08 Jan 2010		£214,283	+4.2%
Land Registry HPI	Dec 2009	29 Jan 2010		£161,783	+2.5%
BoE Mortgage Approvals	Dec 2009	01 Feb 2009	42.7k	59.0k ( 60.0k Dec )	+85.4%
HMRC Property Transactions	Dec 2009	22 Jan 2009	104k	100k ( 81k Nov )	+76.3%
RICS Price Rise Balance	Dec 2009	12 Jan 2010		+30.0% ( +35.0% Nov )
RICS Sales to Stock	Dec 2009	12 Jan 2010		30.6% ( 31.1% Nov )

BoE base rate lowered by 0.50 percentage points to 0.5% on 5th March 2009

February 2010

Mon 1st	BoE MPC minutes
	BoE mortgage lending data
Thu 4th	BoE MPC interest rate decision
	Halifax house price index(prov)
Fri 12th	FT house price index
	CML regulated mortgage survey
Mon 15th	Rightmove house price index
Tue 16th	CLG house price index
Wed 17th	BoE MPC minutes
Fri 26th	Nationwide house price index (prov)
	LR house price index

Future Interest Rates

Months Ahead	Rate
+1	0.50 %
+2	0.50 %
+3	0.50 %
+6	0.54 %
+9	0.65 %
+12	0.80 %
Future interest rate expectations over the next twelve months based on BBA REPO forward rates from 31-Dec-2009. read more

iPhone - House Prices on your Mobile

Try our special house price mini-site on your iPhone. new

See at a glance where the housing market is heading. All the latest trends and market indicators in your pocket!
www.HousePrices.uk.net/iphone iPhone 3G, UK house prices



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